Abstract:
Purpose Liaoning is an agricultural province with scarce reserve resources of arable land, and the contradiction between increasing population and decreasing land is very prominent, which is difficult to reverse in the short term. The red line of cultivated land quality is an unbreakable "red line" drawn for the protection of cultivated land quality, clarifying the red lines of cultivated land quality grades and main indicators in Liaoning Province and its western, central, and eastern regions, so order to provide scientific bases for protecting and improving the quality of cultivated land in the province according to local conditions.
Method Based on a series of data from the Liaoning Statistical Yearbook from 2012 to 2023, the statistical bulletins on national economic and social development of various cities, the official websites of governments at all levels, the EPS platform (a global statistical data/analysis platform), and the 2019 evaluation data on cultivated land quality, the Arima model was used to predict the grain output and grain yield per unit area of Liaoning Province and its western, central and eastern regions in 2030. The regression analysis method was adopted to delineate the cultivated land quality and the red line of indicators in Liaoning Province.
Result The average quality grade red line of cultivated land in Liaoning Province is predicted to be 3.14 in 2030, an increase of 0.16 grades compared with the actual grade in 2019. The average quality grade red lines of cultivated land in the three major regions of west, central and east are predicted to increase by 0.25, 0.53 and 0.12 grades respectively. The central region has higher indicators of available phosphorus and other nutrients in the soil than the western region and the central region. The thickness of the cultivated soil layer in the central region is higher than that of the western region and the eastern region.
Conclusion The red line for the quality grade of cultivated land in Liaoning Province in 2030 is set at 3.14, which is higher than the actual quality grade of cultivated land in 2019. In comparison, the red line for the quality grade of cultivated land in the central region of Liaoning Province is higher than that in the western and eastern regions.
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