Factors Influencing Family Farm-scale Management Willingness to Behavior in Hilly and Mountainous Areas: Taking Jiangjin District Modern Agriculture Demonstration Park as an Example
-
摘要:
目的 丘陵山区农业经营规模小、土地细碎化等问题难以适应现代农业规模化发展,揭示家庭农场规模经营意愿、行为及意愿转为行为的影响因素,助力于推进规模经营,发展现代农业。 方法 以重庆市江津区现代农业示范园区271户家庭农场为例,基于行为转化路径视角,建立无序多分类Logistic模型,探究家庭农场规模经营意愿、行为及意愿转为行为的影响因素。 结果 ① 26.57%的家庭农场主对规模经营有意愿有行为,表现出意愿与行为的一致性;37.27%有意愿,但无行为,表现出差异性;36.16%没有意愿也没有行为,表现出一致性。② 经营风险感知、经营规模满意度、适度规模的认知、经营耕地面积等对家庭农场主的规模经营意愿和行为均有显著影响;同时,有无专业技能、地块破碎度和区域环境等对意愿有较为显著影响,家庭劳动力人数、商品化率等对行为有较为显著影响。③ 经营耕地面积对家庭农场主规模经营意愿转为行为有显著影响,家庭劳动力人数、有无产业链、商品化率、适度规模认知影响次之,而亩均年收入、政府补贴率、非农收入比等资金特征影响较弱。 结论 规模经营风险越小、对适度规模经营越了解、对目前经营规模越不满意且经营耕地面积越大的农场主产生规模经营意愿、行为的概率越大;而对于有意愿且经营耕地面积越大的农场主,发展扩大规模经营行为的概率越大。 Abstract:Objective It is difficult to adapt to the large-scale development of modern agriculture, such as the small scale of agricultural operation and the fragmentation of land in hilly mountainous areas, and the disclosure of the influencing factors of the willingness, behavior and willingness to turn into behavior of family farms is conducive to promoting the development of modern agriculture in large-scale operation. Method Taking 271 family farms in the modern agriculture demonstration park in Jiangjin District, Chongqing as an example, based on the perspective of behavior transformation path, this paper established a disordered multi-classification logistic model to explore the influencing factors of family farmers’ willingness to operate on an appropriate scale, behavior and willingness to change into a behavior. Result ① 26.57% of family farmers had the will to act on the scale of operation, and the willingness and behavior showed consistency; 37.27% had the will, but no behavior, showing differences; 36.16% had no will and no behavior, showing consistency. ② Operational risk perception, satisfaction with business scale, awareness of appropriate scale, and area of cultivated land had significant impacts on the willingness and behavior of family farmers to operate on a large scale. At the same time, the presence or absence of professional skills, the degree of fragmentation of the plot and the regional environment had a significant impact on the willingness, and the number of household laborers and the commercialization rate had a significant impact on the behavior. ③ The area of cultivated land in operation has a significant impact on the willingness of family farmers to turn into behavior, followed by the number of family laborers, the presence or absence of industrial chains, the commercialization rate, and the cognition of moderate scale, while the impact of capital characteristics, such as average annual income per mu, government subsidy rate, and non-agricultural income ratio is weak. Conclusion It is believed that the smaller the risk of large-scale operation, the more understanding of moderate-scale operation, the more dissatisfied with the current scale of operation, and the larger the area of cultivated land operated by the farmer, the greater the probability of generating large-scale operation willingness and behavior. Farmers, who are willing to operate the larger the area of arable land, have the greater the probability of developing a large-scale business. -
Key words:
- Hilly mountain /
- Family farm /
- Moderate scale operation /
- Willingness to behavior
-
表 1 变量选取与说明
Table 1. Variable selection and description
一级变量
Variable name二级变量
Variable name变量说明
Variable description符号
Symbol类型
Type规模经营意愿行为 有意愿有行为(Y1) 家庭农场对规模经营有意愿有行为 分类 有意愿无行为(Y2) 家庭农场对规模经营有意愿无行为 分类 无意愿无行为(Y3) 家庭农场对规模经营无意愿无行为 分类 经营主体特征 年龄(X1) 家庭农场法人的年龄(岁) − 连续 受教育程度(X2) 0 = 文盲,1 = 小学,2 = 初中,3 = 高中,4 = 大专及以上 + 分类 有无专业技能(X3) 0 = 没有,1 = 有 + 分类 家庭劳动力人数(X4) 家庭农场自有劳动力(人) + 连续 资金特征 单位面积年投入(X5) 1 hm2土地一年的平均投入(元) − 连续 政府补贴率(X6) (政府补贴/农业收入) × 100 + 连续 非农收入比(X7) 一年从事非农工作的收入(元) − 连续 市场特征 有无产业链(X8) 0 = 无产业链,1 = 有产业链 + 分类 商品化率(X9) (农产品销售量/总产量) × 100 + 连续 规模认知特征 经营风险感知(X10) 0=风险下降,1 = 没有变化,2 = 风险增加 − 分类 经营规模满意度(X11) 0 = 不满意,1 = 满意 + 分类 对适度规模认知(X12) 0 = 不了解,1 = 了解 + 分类 资源禀赋特征 经营耕地面积(X13) 目前经营的耕地面积(hm2) + 连续 地块破碎度(X14) 地块数/耕地总面积 − 连续 耕地质量等级(X15) 1 ~ 15等 + 连续 产业类型(X16) 1 = 果蔬、2 = 综合、3 = 畜禽、4 = 水产、5 = 花椒、
6 = 花木、7 = 特色、8 = 粮油+ 分类 区域环境(X17) 1 = 慈云镇、2 = 龙华镇、3 = 白沙镇、4 = 李市镇、
5 = 先锋镇、6 = 永兴镇、7 = 石门镇+ 分类 表 2 家庭农场规模经营影响因素的估计结果
Table 2. Estimation results of influencing factors of family farmers’ scale management
变量赋值
Variable assignment有无意愿
Willing or not有无行为
With or without behavior意愿转为行为
Willingness to behavior模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型3
Model 3模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型3
Model 3模型1
Model 1模型2
Model 2模型3
Model 3X1 −0.031* −0.033* −0.043** −0.034* −0.041* −0.048* −0.003 −0.008 −0.005 X2=0 −0.193 −0.597 −0.562 1.497* 2.054* 1.800* 1.690 2.651 2.362 X2=2 0.397 0.283 0.236 0.860* 1.039* 0.809* 0.463 0.755 0.573 X2=4 0.616 0.773* 0.489 −0.123 0.119 −0.233 −0.740 −0.654 −0.721 X3=0 −1.119*** −1.238*** −1.139*** −0.690* −0.701* −0.630* 0.428 0.537 0.509 X4 0.145* 0.097 0.181* 0.525** 0.528** 0.602** 0.380* 0.431** 0.420* X7 0.009 0.002 −0.025* 0.018 0.017 −0.007 0.009 0.015 0.018 X8=0 0.224 0.179 0.177 −0.768* −0.913* −0.965* −0.992* −1.091** −1.142** X9 0.002 0.003 0.017* 0.019** 0.021** 0.036*** 0.017** 0.018** 0.019* X10=0 1.891*** 1.943*** 1.880*** 2.335*** 2.468*** 2.351*** 0.444 0.526 0.471 X10=1 0.204 0.310* 0.282 1.011 1.065 0.994 0.807* 0.756* 0.712 X11=0 1.600*** 1.610*** 1.531*** 1.875*** 2.005*** 2.022*** 0.275 0.395 0.491 X12=0 −2.334*** −2.474*** −2.769*** −3.139*** −3.357*** −3.563*** −0.805** −0.883** −0.793* X13 0.011*** 0.013*** 0.014*** 0.003** 0.004*** 0.005** 0.008*** 0.009*** 0.009*** X14 −0.288** −0.278* −0.247* −0.301* −0.310* −0.282* −0.014 −0.032 −0.035 X15 0.067 0.074 −0.016 0.179* 0.191* 0.159* 0.112 0.118 0.175 X16=2 −0.827 −1.120* 0.544 0.199 1.371 1.319 X16=3 −0.729 −1.291* −0.460 −0.806 0.268 0.485 X16=6 1.229* 0.918* −0.018 −0.334 −1.248 −1.252 X16=7 1.243* 0.964 2.751* 2.397* 1.508 1.433 X17=1 1.851*** 1.710** −0.141 X17=2 2.990*** −17.121 −20.112 X17=3 1.567** 1.608* 0.041 X17=4 2.155*** 2.182** 0.027 X17=5 1.931** 1.279 −0.652 X17=6 1.870*** 1.947** 0.076 注:***、**、* 分别表示通过了1%、5%、10%显著性检验;自变量中每个分类最后一类作为对照组。表中仅展示了偏回归系数及显著水平,此外,三个模型中均无显著影响的因素未列入。 -
[1] 熊 熙, 张仕超, 梁靖茹, 等. 丘陵山区家庭农场时空拓展特征及驱动力分析−以重庆市江津区为例[J]. 山地学报, 2021, 39(1): 71 − 87. [2] 张益丰, 韩 杰, 王 晨. 土地流转、农业适度规模化及农户增收的多维度检视−基于三省584户农业经营户调研数据的实证研究[J]. 经济学家, 2019, (4): 89 − 102. [3] 李存贵. 基于Logistic模型的农户土地规模经营意愿分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2020, 36(2): 97 − 100. [4] 张 兰, 冯淑怡, 陆华良, 等. 农地规模经营影响因素的实证研究−基于江苏省村庄调查数据[J]. 中国土地科学, 2015, 29(11): 32 − 39 + 62. [5] 凌 莎. 农户规模经营意愿及其影响因素−基于全国26个省区的抽样问卷调查的思考[J]. 农村经济, 2014, (4): 96 − 100. [6] 李练军. 粮食主产区水稻适度规模经营意愿影响因素研究−基于江西省7县428个水稻种植户的调查[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2017, 38(12): 130 − 137. [7] 蒋 辉, 刘兆阳. 贫困地区特色农业规模经营意愿的影响因素研究−微观农户视角的分析[J]. 中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2016, 36(2): 106 − 111. [8] 赵金国, 岳书铭. 农户规模经营意愿影响因素分析研究[J]. 山东社会科学, 2017, (1): 116 − 121. [9] 向红玲, 陈昭玖. 分工深化视角下农业迂回生产与农户规模经营意愿分析−基于江西水稻种植户调查[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2019, 40(1): 54 − 62. [10] 周 敏, 匡 兵, 黄善林. 农户农地规模经营意愿影响因素实证研究−基于黑龙江省401份农户的调查数据[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018, 32(12): 63 − 68. [11] 吕 晓, 臧 涛, 张全景. 农户规模经营意愿与行为的影响机制及差异−基于山东省3县379份农户调查问卷的实证[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(5): 1147 − 1159. [12] 苏 敏, 冯淑怡, 诸培新. 家庭生命周期、风险偏好对农户规模经营意愿的影响−基于江苏省北部两县市的调查数据[J]. 中国土地科学, 2020, 34(7): 88 − 96. [13] 刘 莎, 刘 明. 家庭借贷、经营规模与农户土地经营意愿−基于小农户、中农户和大农户分化视角[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2021, 30(8): 1969 − 1981. [14] Ajzen I. The theory of planned behavior[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1991. [15] Ajzen I, Supsup, S. The theory of planned behavior: Reactions and reflections[J]. Psychology & Health, 2011, 26(9): 1113 − 27. [16] 徐冬梅, 高 岚. 农户转出林地产权的影响因素综合探讨−基于意愿转化行为路径视角分析[J]. 农村经济, 2017, (11): 35 − 42. [17] 范乔希, 应寿英. 丘陵区农户土地流转意愿调查−以重庆市为例[J]. 调研世界, 2017, (8): 32 − 37. [18] 陈新建, 董 涛. 影响农户规模经营意愿的市场风险因素分析−基于广东水果种植农户的调查[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2014, (4): 113 − 115. [19] 范乔希, 刘锦扬, 应寿英. 丘陵区农户土地流转意愿影响因素实证分析[J]. 农村经济, 2017, (11): 29 − 34. [20] 兰 勇, 蒋 黾, 杜志雄. 农户向家庭农场流转土地的续约意愿及影响因素研究[J]. 中国农村经济, 2020, (1): 65 − 85. [21] 陈 振, 郭 杰, 欧名豪. 农户农地转出意愿与转出行为的差异分析[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(10): 2039 − 2047.