四川省安宁河流域耕地非粮化特征及其驱动因素研究

Characteristics and Driving Factors of Non-grain Production of Cultivated Land in Anning River Basin of Sichuan Province

  • 摘要:
    目的 摸清重要流域耕地非粮化状况,为地区耕地高效利用和确保粮食安全提供依据。
    方法 运用空间相关分析、热点分析等方法识别2001 ~ 2021年四川省安宁河流域耕地非粮化特征,构建经济计量模型探究非粮化驱动因素。
    结果 ① 2001 ~ 2021年,耕地非粮化率总体有所下降,其地区差异程度呈现“降低→提高”的时间变化态势,存在正偏态分布且相对均匀;② 耕地非粮化率呈现攀枝花段高、凉山州段低的空间格局,具有西高东低、南高北低的空间趋势,总体上以凉山州段中部为低值中心,向南北扩散且呈现低值区向高值区演变特征;③ 耕地非粮化率空间热点状态由“北部热点集聚、中部不显著、南部冷点集聚”向“北部单个热点区、其余区县不显著”的转变,冕宁县一直处于热点状态;④ 耕地面积、粮食单产、城镇化率、农林牧渔总产值、农村居民人均纯收入、地均农机总动力、人均耕地面积、农业从业人员、国内生产总值(GDP)对耕地非粮化率具有显著影响,但不同流域段存在差异。
    结论 四川省安宁河流域应聚焦新型农业经营主体、落实耕地保护建设硬措施、加大农业技术攻关、优化流域空间格局,进而严控非粮化增长,稳固地区粮食生产。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective This study is aimed to find out the status of non-grain production of cultivated land in important river basins, and to provide the basis for realizing the efficient use of regional cultivated land and ensuring food security.
    Method Spatial correlation analysis and hot spot analysis were used to identify the characteristics of non-grain production of cultivated land in the Anning River Basin of Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2021, and econometric models were built to explore the driving factors.
    Result ① The non-grain rate of cultivated land in Anning River Basin of Sichuan Province generally showed a downward trend from 2001 to 2021, and the differentiated degree showed a trend of "decreasing → increasing", and there was a positive skew distribution, and the distribution was relatively uniform. ② The spatial difference of non-grain production was obvious, showing a spatial pattern of high in Panzhihua section and low in Liangshanzhou section. The spatial trend of non-grain rate was west high and east low, south high and north low. In general, the middle part of Liangshanzhou section was the low value center, spreading to the north and south, and showing a trend of evolution from low value area to high value area. ③ The spatial hotspot state of non-grain rate of cultivated land in Anning River Basin of Sichuan Province changed from "hot spots in the north, no significant in the middle, and cold spots in the south" to "single hot spots in the north, no significant in the other districts and counties", and Mianning County was always in a hot spot state. ④ Non-grain rate of cultivated land is affected by factors such as cultivated land area, grain yield per unit area, urbanization rate, total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, per capita net income of rural residents, total power of agricultural machinery per land, per capita cultivated land area, agricultural employees, and GDP. However, there are differences among different regions of the basin.
    Conclusion The Anning River Basin of Sichuan Province should focus on the new agricultural management subjects, implement the hard measures of cultivated land protection, strengthen the agricultural technology research, optimize the spatial pattern of the basin, so as to strictly control non-grain growth and stabilize the cornerstone of regional food security.

     

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