ERA5地温数据在内蒙古地区的适用性及变化分析

The Applicability and Variation Analysis of ERA5 Ground Temperature in Inner Mongolia Region

  • 摘要:
    目的 为推广气候再分析数据在内蒙古地温变化研究中的应用,解决地温历史观测数据严重缺测或中断问题,为内蒙古气候变化等相关研究提供科学基础。
    方法 利用欧洲中期天气预报中心最新的第五代再分析数据(ERA5),采用泰勒图和特征台站对1961 ~ 2022年5个不同深度土层的ERA5再分析地温数据在内蒙古地区的适用性进行分析,并结合Sen趋势分析和M-K检验法对内蒙古地区的地温变化趋势开展研究。
    结果 ERA5地温与气象站观测地温的一致性会随着土层深度的增加而降低,但两数据系列间的相关系数均可通过0.01水平的显著性检验。每层ERA5地温均与相近土层深度范围中较深的台站观测地温相关性更高。与台站观测相比,ERA5地温普遍呈现为暖季偏低而冷季偏高的现象。内蒙古各层的年平均地温在4.6 ~ 6.5℃之间,其中地表温度最低而近地表的浅层地温最高,空间上内蒙古各层地温均呈现自东北向西南递增分布。研究期内,内蒙古各层地温均呈现升温趋势,平均变化率在0.038 ~ 0.026℃ a−1,其中地表升温最快而近地表的浅层地温升温最慢。年平均变化速率的月份差异会随着土层深度的增加而降低,同时升温最明显的月份也会随着深度的增加而出现滞后现象。
    结论 ERA5地温数据在内蒙古地区具有较好的适用性。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective The aim was to promote the application of climate reanalysis data in the study of ground temperature variation in Inner Mongolia, solving the problem of severe lack of historical ground temperature observation data, and providing a scientific basis for the study of climate change in Inner Mongolia.
    Method Taylor diagrams and characteristic stations were used to analyze the applicability of ERA5 reanalysis ground temperature data at five different depths of soil layers from 1961 to 2022 in the Inner Mongolia region, and Sen trend analysis and M-K test were used to study the ground temperature change trend.
    Result The consistency between ERA5 ground temperature and meteorological station observed ground temperature decreased with the increasing of soil depth, but all correlation coefficients passed the significance test at the 0.01 level. The correlation between ERA5 land temperature at each layer and the observed ground temperature of stations with deeper soil depth in the vicinity were higher. Compared with the station observations, ERA5 ground temperature generally showed a phenomenon of lower temperatures in the warm season and higher temperatures in the cold season. The annual average ground temperature of each layer in Inner Mongolia ranges from 4.6 to 6.5℃, with the surface temperature being the lowest and the shallow layer temperature near the surface being the highest. Spatially, ground temperatures at each layer in Inner Mongolia showed an increasing distribution from northeast to southwest. During the study period, the ground temperatures at each layer in Inner Mongolia showed a warming trend, with an average change rate of 0.038 to 0.026℃ per year, with the surface temperature warming the fastest and the shallow layer temperature near the surface warming the slowest. Differences in changing rates by month decreased with the increasing of soil depth at the same time. The months with the most obvious warming also showed a lag phenomenon as the depth increases.
    Conclusion ERA5 ground temperature data had good applicability in Inner Mongolia region.

     

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