东北三省种植业碳氮足迹的时空特征及驱动因素

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Drivers of Plantation Carbon and Nitrogen Footprints in the Three Northeastern Provinces of China

  • 摘要:
    目的 核算东北三省种植业的碳氮足迹,建立完整的碳氮足迹数据库,并揭示其主要影响因素,以期为东北三省种植业的健康和可持续发展提供数据支撑。
    方法 以东北三省种植业碳氮足迹为研究对象,采用全生命周期法和投入产出法构建碳氮足迹核算体系,建立碳氮足迹数据库,采用LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) 模型分解种植业碳氮足迹驱动因素。
    结果 辽宁省和吉林省碳氮足迹和碳氮排放量均呈现下降趋势,碳氮承载力均呈现增加趋势。黑龙江省碳氮足迹和碳氮排放量呈现上升趋势,碳承载力呈现增加趋势,氮承载力呈现下降趋势。截至2020年,东北三省均实现碳盈余,吉林省实现氮盈余,辽宁省和黑龙江省仍处于氮赤字状态。种植业碳排放量与氮排放量较高的地区主要分布在松嫩平原、三江平原和辽河平原地区,农业效率是降低碳氮足迹的关键驱动因素。
    结论 辽宁省和吉林省种植业减污降碳效果显著,黑龙江省种植业碳氮排放仍持续增加,建议增加农业经济投入,提高农业生产效率,扩大种植业规模,降低投入产出比,转移农村富余劳动力,优化肥料施用,降低碳氮排放强度,推进东北三省种植业绿色高质量发展。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective The carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) footprints of the agricultural industry in the three northeastern provinces were accounted for a comprehensive database of C and N footprints, and the main influencing factors were revealed, in order to provide data support for the healthy and sustainable development of the agricultural industry in these provinces.
    Method The C and N footprints of the cropping industry in the three northeastern provinces of China were studied. A system for accounting C and N footprint was developed using the life cycle assessment method and the input-output method, and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model was employed to decompose the driving factors of the C and N footprints of the cropping industry.
    Result The C and N footprints and emissions in Liaoning Province and Jilin Province showed a decreasing trend, while their C and N carrying capacities exhibited an increasing trend. In contrast, Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend in C and N footprints and emissions, with its C carrying capacity on the rise and N carrying capacity on the decline. All three northeastern provinces achieved C surplus in 2020, with Jilin Province also attaining N surplus, whereas Liaoning Province and Heilongjiang Province remain in a state of N deficit. Regions with higher C and N emissions from agriculture were primarily located in the Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain, and Liaohe Plain. Agricultural efficiency is a key driver in reducing C and N footprints.
    Conclusion Liaoning and Jilin provinces have achieved significant results in reducing pollution and C emissions in agriculture. However, C and N emissions from agriculture in Heilongjiang Province continue to rise. It is recommended to increase investment in agricultural economics, improve agricultural production efficiency, expand the scale of cultivation, reduce the input-output ratio, transfer surplus rural labor, optimize fertilizer application, reduce C and N emission intensity, and promote green and high-quality development of agriculture in the three northeastern provinces.

     

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