中国耕地非粮化时空特征及影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Non-grain Cultivated Land in China

  • 摘要:
    目的 揭示中国耕地非粮化时空演变趋势和影响因素变化,摸清耕地非粮化态势,旨在为我国耕地保护和粮食安全保障提供建议。
    方法 采用空间自相关、地理加权回归模型等方法对1999-2019年耕地非粮化率数据进行分析,明确中国耕地非粮化时空特征及影响因素变化情况。
    结果 1999-2019年,耕地非粮化率与非粮食作物播种面积呈现上升-下降-波动稳定的趋势,2003年达到研究期内峰值,2010年后变化平稳,中国耕地非粮化呈现“由北向南”“由西向东”递增的空间特征;中国耕地非粮化空间集聚上具有较强的空间分异性,以低-低集聚和高-高集聚区为主,呈现东北低-西南高的空间格局;有效灌溉面积、第一产业占比、人均农业机械动力、土地生产率、单位耕地面积劳动力人数是耕地非粮化的主要影响因素,但存在空间异质性。
    结论 应加强耕地非粮化监管、对耕地实行分类分区管控,通过技术创新实施“藏粮于技”战略,有效管控耕地非粮化,提高耕地资源的可持续利用。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective The aims were to map the development of non-grain cultivated land dynamics in China, to identify the Spatial-temporal changes and influencing factors of non-grain cultivated land in China, and to provide suggestions for the protection of arable land and food security ensuring in China.
    Methods The study was based on the data of the non-grain rate of cultivated land from 1999 ~ 2019 and investigated the spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land non-grainification and influencing factors in China through spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression models.
    Results ① From 1999 to 2019, the non-grain rate of cultivated land and the area of non-grain cultivated land showed a trend of rising, declining, then fluctuating steadily, reaching the peak in 2003 and changing steadily after 2010. China's non-grain cultivated land showed an increasing spatial feature of "north to south" and "west to east." ② The spatial concentration of non-grain cultivated land in China has strong spatial heterogeneity, with low-low concentration and high-high concentration areas dominating, showing a spatial pattern of low in the northeast and high in the southwest. ③The proportion of non-grain cultivated land is spatially heterogeneous and influenced by a number of factors, including effective irrigated area, the proportion of primary industry, per capita power of agricultural machinery, land productivity, and the number of rural laborers per unit area.
    Conclusion We should strengthen the supervision of non-grain cultivated land, implement classification and zoning control of arable land, and implement the strategy of "store grain by improving technology" through technological innovation, so as to effectively control the non-grain cultivated land and improve the sustainable use of arable land resources.

     

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